Apple unwraps the iPhone 17 lineup
Apple’s new iPhones officially launched last week, and while the buzz was strong, the element of surprise was once again missing. Much like last year, many of the headline features of the iPhone 17 series had already been revealed through reliable leaks and industry speculation. Still, that hasn’t stopped the new lineup from generating serious attention. Here is Circana’s quick take on the iPhone 17 series and how it might perform amid shifting market trends and evolving consumer expectations.
iPhone Air -Slim design, slim potential:
The iPhone Air was by far the most speculated new iPhone release as the market eagerly waited to see Apple design and engineering teams’ response to competition’s hardware form factor and innovations. The outcome is the probably most aesthetic iPhone built to date, but the slim factor resulted in major concessions that limit its appeal for success. The phone’s largest drawback is the 3,149 mAh battery that provides up to 22 hours of streamed video playback, which is 8 hours less than that of the new iPhone 17 Pro, which houses a 4,252 mAh battery. As we have long been commenting in our market presentations, battery life/performance continues to be the top driver of smartphone upgrades and the iPhone Air’s relatively small battery will be a turnoff despite the gorgeous form factor and aesthetics of the phone. Apple addressed the battery limitation by introducing a clip-on battery attachment. However, we are concerned that this attachment will serve as a perpetual reminder of the phone’s mediocre battery performance, similar to how Samsung’s “one free screen replacement” proposition on the Galaxy Z Fold series created a negative sentiment among prospective customers, highlighting the phone’s susceptibility to screen damage.
Another significant limitation of the slim form factor is the absence of a mmWave antenna, which renders the iPhone Air incapable of connecting to Verizon’s ultrawide band 5G network. mmWave support is a crucial differentiator in Verizon’s network marketing, which has faced intense pressure from rival T-Mobile, who is running a massive marketing campaign around its network assets. Consequently, Verizon will not prioritize the iPhone Air due to its absence of mmWave support.
Circana’s latest Connected Intelligence Mobility survey depicts genuine interest in slim phones by certain demographics (details will be provided during the market update presentations for clients at the end of the month), but as in the case with Samsung’s S25 Galaxy Edge variant, we do not expect the iPhone Air sales performance to be anywhere close to the iPhone 17 and 17 Pro models.
No tariff impact as new iPhone prices remain the same, not:
It is true that the iPhone 17’s price tag is the same as last year’s, and the iPhone 17 Pro 256 GB cost the same as last year, but the reality is that the iPhone 17 Pro series starting price is $1099 versus $999 last year. The discontinued iPhone 16 Pro 128 GB model accounted for roughly 40% of all iPhone 16 Pro variants sold to date since its debut last September as it was the hero model highlighted in postpaid carriers’ “free on us” promotions. Apple’s product mix and pricing strategy is brilliant here as it is now up to the US postpaid carriers to cover the incremental cost in order to continue their “iPhone Pro free on us” promotions (it is possible Apple is pitching back to carrier partners more than it did last year).
Specifications-wise, the iPhone 17 Pro is a true engineering marvel that will attract many upgrades from older iPhone Pro models. Apple’s new design of the camera bump, or the camera plateau as Apple calls it, allowed the company to move many of its silicon and components to the upper part of the phone, leaving more real estate for a larger battery. The iPhone 17 Pro is also the first iPhone to feature a liquid thermal chamber to help cool down the phone when the processor is running at top speed.
At “$0” after all applicable savings of up to $1099, the iPhone 17 Pro is an excellent upgrade option for those postpaid customers who are already on postpaid carriers’ top-tier rate plans or those who are willing to upgrade to these expensive rate plans that cost as high as $85/month for single-line accounts. While we expect to see postpaid carriers convincing many account holders to upgrade to high-end rate plans, there is an important base of customers who will show resistance to seeing their monthly service bills go up by $15-20 per month per user just so that they can get their hands on the new flagship iPhone. According to the latest Connected Intelligence Mobility survey, close to three-quarters of postpaid users on legacy plans cite that they might look for alternative carriers if the monthly cost of their service plan was to increase by even $5 to $10 (more to be shared with clients during the upcoming market update sessions at the end of the month).
The star of the bunch – the $799 iPhone 17:
When Apple introduced the iPhone 16 last year, we called it the entry-level on steroids as Apple packed its entry-level iPhone model with features typically reserved for the Pro models, such as Camera Control and the new AI features. The new iPhone 17 creates a similar sensation plus it packs more features with an upgraded camera, the new Ceramic Shield 2 cover offering three times better scratch resistance, and more importantly a larger display (increased from 6.1 inches on the iPhone 16 to 6.3 inches despite keeping the phone’s dimensions the same) that (finally) offers a 120 Hz refresh rate. The enlarged display gave Apple the confidence to pull the plug on the Plus series, which was not a volume seller as consumers seeking large display iPhones were gravitating towards the Pro Max models. Apple also kept the price the same at $799, while doubling the storage capacity to 256 GB on the new iPhone 17.
While the specifications variance between the new iPhone 17 and the 17 Pro series is quite large, the affordable iPhone 17, like its predecessor, is destined to surpass the Pro model given the economic headwinds putting immense pressure on mid- and low-income consumer segments. With consumers facing tighter budgets, the iPhone 17 will be a more attractive option for many iPhone users who will be upgrading from 4+ year models. The threat of cannibalization to the Pro models may be higher than last year; U.S. Pro buyers typically purchase with significant carrier subsidies, but as noted earlier, requirements to be eligible for these subsidies are most costly than ever.
Siri is still in the back seat, but that’s fine:
Apple has made it abundantly clear that Apple Intelligence wasn’t ready to take the lead, let alone dictate the agenda, due to delays in achieving its large language models’ parity with competitors. Consequently, we weren’t anticipating AI to dominate the spotlight at this year’s unveiling event. While Apple continues to face criticism for its lag in integrating AI into its hardware platforms, most consumers aren’t as concerned about AI in smartphones as the tech industry might assume. Circana’s latest Connected Intelligence Mobility survey revealed that AI remains a distant third in the list of smartphone purchase drivers for most consumers. Similar to the previous year, only two features, smart assistants and photo editing, garnered a 30%+ interest level, underscoring the indifference of most consumers towards AI features on smartphones. (More insights will be shared during the upcoming market update sessions.)
Record-high device age and carrier promotions to drive upgrades:
We have long been commenting on average smartphone age reaching all-time high levels, fostering consumers seeking replacements/upgrades to their smartphones. This record-high device age is the main reason why the 2025 new smartphone volumes are trending close to double digits higher than the levels observed last year. The new iPhone 17 series will further fuel this growth trajectory thanks to postpaid carriers’ generous offers, including the free iPhone 17 Pro model, which has become the lead offer across all postpaid carriers. Other noteworthy promotions include Verizon’s free connected device (iPad and Apple Watch) bundle, given that these devices are activated with service, and T-Mobile’s holiday classic offering of up to four free entry-level iPhones (the iPhone 17) for $25/month with trade-ins and other requirements.